A weblog by Will Fitzgerald

Election 2004 mini-analysis

Michigan went for Gore in 2000, and for Kerry in 2004, by relatively small amounts: Gore got 51.3% of the vote in 2000 (with 2.6% going to 3rd parties). Kerry got 51.1% of the vote in 2004 (with 1% going to third parties).

Voting was up 13.7% over 2000. Most interesting is the disparity between Democrats and Republicans: Democratic voters were up 13.3%, but Republicans were up 18.1%.

It’s interesting to pull out two counties: my own (Kalamazoo) and Wexford, a largely rural county in northern lower Michigan (the county seat is Cadillac, where my sister-in-law Jean and her family just moved–and she immediately jumped into the Democratic get out the vote).

Kalamazoo actually voted more Democatic in 2004 than in 2000: 51.3% vs. 48.5% (with 1% and 3.6% going to 3rd parties, respectively). This shows in the increase numbers: Democratic voters were up 25.9% vs. 18.4% for Republicans. Wexford Democrats matched the statewide Democratic increase: 13.3%, but the Republicans were up 24.3% (Kerry got 39.8% of the vote in 2004; Gore, 41% of the vote in 2000; with 1.1% and 3.4% to 3rd party candidates, respectively.

Apparently, local “GOTV” efforts do make a difference–or, perhaps, just a peer feedback loop (‘rich get richer’ in voter increase). I did see a strong increase in people excited to vote Democratic: I just didn’t see my strong the increase in the Republican voter numbers was. Maybe I should spend less time reading Salon.

Data from the Michigan Secretary of State: official 2000 data, and unofficial 2004 data.


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