January 26, 2006
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We have a big demo next week that requires at least one rain-free morning on Tuesday or Wednesday, so I’ve been checking the weather forecasts. One thing I’ve learned is that the National Weather Service publishes ‘forecast discussions.’ These give the rationale for the government’s weather forecasts. For example, from today:
After Sunday…the forecast becomes much less clear. Over the past several days…there has been significant variation in solutions both run-to-run of the same model and between the different longer-range models. In fact…even the entire envelope of GFS ensemble solutions has shown significant variation. There have also been some significant tropical developments over the past week that both have the potential to influence our weather in the extended portion of the forecast and which are likely to have not been captured well by the numerical forecast models. The general upshot of all this at present is that it appears there will be significant west coast precip at times next week…but with the best present assessment being that the primary focus will be north of our district. Nonetheless…rain chances will continue for all but our southernmost areas through the middle of next week…But with the details of the timing currently too uncertain to specify.