Predictions

One year from now, we’ll be electing a new president and voting for new members of Congress. Has our next eight years ever been so predictable?

November, 1998. Hillary Clinton wins the election with a large electoral vote majority, and about 55% of the popular vote, the first woman elected president (with Barack Obama as the first African-American vice-president). Democrats gain control of both houses.

First term. Pull-out from Iraq is slow, deadly and met with unconcern by the American public. Clinton fails to enact significant health care reform. Clinton and Congress fail to enact significant health care reform, environmental reform, campaign finance reform, but gay rights expand in the military (don’t ask, don’t tell repealed). Some increased taxes on the wealthiest Americans, but the gap between rich and poor continues to increase. Scandal #1 and #2 damage Clinton’s reputation. Republicans regain control of either the House or the Senate in 2010. Major regional war erupts or major terrorist attack on US soil.

November 2012. Hillary Clinton wins the election with a slight electoral vote majority. Republicans regain control of both houses.

Second term. Scandal #3 and #4 further damage Clinton’s reputation. Very small health care reform enacted. Prosecution of major regional war or reaction to terrorist attack fumbles because of political in-fighting. Social security reform enacted, decreasing significantly the value of retiree benefits.

November 2016. Republican candidate wins close election, defeating Barack Obama.

What’s your take?